UK shoppers buying seafood more often despite economic pressures, reveals new NSC report
October 28, 2026
The budget statement describes modest economic growth, tighter fiscal headroom and higher taxes on some income, alongside targeted household support and new business reporting requirements.
Economic outlook
The OBR forecasts annual UK growth of 1% to 2% over the next five years. Fiscal headroom is expected to fall from £24bn to £15bn in 2029/30. Debt interest spending rises by £14bn in 2026, with debt above 90% of GDP.
Tax and business
Income tax and National Insurance thresholds remain frozen. The statement lists basic rates on property and savings income of 20% in 2025/26, 22% in 2026/27 and 24% in 2027/28, with increases also for higher and additional rate taxpayers. The cash ISA allowance stays at £20,000.
From 6 April 2027, the Trading Allowance rises to £3,000 and the Business Asset Disposal Relief lifetime limit halves to £500,000. The statement also lists CGT Founders Relief at 10% on up to £10m of qualifying lifetime gains. The business rates threshold for retail, hospitality and leisure rises from £12,000 to £18,000, excluding adult gaming centres and vape shops from relief.
From April 2029, Self Assessment payments on account become smaller and more frequent; VAT e-invoicing becomes mandatory; and VAT and PAYE direct debit mandates are required to collect unpaid balances. Mandatory point of sale software standards are also planned. The bank corporation tax levy rises from 3% to 6% for 15 months from January 2027.
Wages pensions and benefits
Minimum wages rise by 3.9% in April 2027, to £13.20 an hour for ages 21 and over and £11.27 for ages 18 to 20. A new tax-free allowance protects pensioners with income up to the full new State Pension. Two weeks of parental pay extend to self-employed fathers and parents in same-sex relationships. From 2030/31, Carer’s Allowance tapers above £204 weekly earnings.
Household costs
The electricity VAT cut and fuel duty freeze extend to July 2027. Gas standing charges are removed, with costs expected to shift into usage charges. Households in council tax bands A to D in England receive £100 from January 2027, with equivalent funding for devolved nations. The hydrogen levy moves to general taxation. Work mileage rates are stated as 55p for the first 10,000 miles and 35p thereafter.
Public spending and local powers
Additional funding includes £1bn for social and affordable housing in England, £432m for rough sleeping, over £600m for AI projects and £15m to tackle misogyny. All business rates are to be retained locally by 2030, with mayors retaining 20% from 2027. Greater local spending powers begin with £285m in 2027/28.
The budget statement describes modest economic growth, tighter fiscal headroom and higher taxes on some income, alongside targeted household support and new business reporting requirements.
Economic outlook
The OBR forecasts annual UK growth of 1% to 2% over the next five years. Fiscal headroom is expected to fall from £24bn to £15bn in 2029/30. Debt interest spending rises by £14bn in 2026, with debt above 90% of GDP.
Tax and business
Income tax and National Insurance thresholds remain frozen. The statement lists basic rates on property and savings income of 20% in 2025/26, 22% in 2026/27 and 24% in 2027/28, with increases also for higher and additional rate taxpayers. The cash ISA allowance stays at £20,000.
From 6 April 2027, the Trading Allowance rises to £3,000 and the Business Asset Disposal Relief lifetime limit halves to £500,000. The statement also lists CGT Founders Relief at 10% on up to £10m of qualifying lifetime gains. The business rates threshold for retail, hospitality and leisure rises from £12,000 to £18,000, excluding adult gaming centres and vape shops from relief.
From April 2029, Self Assessment payments on account become smaller and more frequent; VAT e-invoicing becomes mandatory; and VAT and PAYE direct debit mandates are required to collect unpaid balances. Mandatory point of sale software standards are also planned. The bank corporation tax levy rises from 3% to 6% for 15 months from January 2027.
Wages pensions and benefits
Minimum wages rise by 3.9% in April 2027, to £13.20 an hour for ages 21 and over and £11.27 for ages 18 to 20. A new tax-free allowance protects pensioners with income up to the full new State Pension. Two weeks of parental pay extend to self-employed fathers and parents in same-sex relationships. From 2030/31, Carer’s Allowance tapers above £204 weekly earnings.
Household costs
The electricity VAT cut and fuel duty freeze extend to July 2027. Gas standing charges are removed, with costs expected to shift into usage charges. Households in council tax bands A to D in England receive £100 from January 2027, with equivalent funding for devolved nations. The hydrogen levy moves to general taxation. Work mileage rates are stated as 55p for the first 10,000 miles and 35p thereafter.
Public spending and local powers
Additional funding includes £1bn for social and affordable housing in England, £432m for rough sleeping, over £600m for AI projects and £15m to tackle misogyny. All business rates are to be retained locally by 2030, with mayors retaining 20% from 2027. Greater local spending powers begin with £285m in 2027/28.
